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Turn down! Will CNY exchange rate break 7?


Recently, there has been a strange thing in the international currency market - the US dollar rose to 0.1454, while the CNY continued to depreciate to 6.8650.​​​​


In short, the CNY depreciated and the dollar appreciated.


Source:Sina Finance


Panda observed the trend of the CNY exchange rate during this period, and found that the CNY has been falling intermittently in the past month, and once it was on the edge of 7. The trend of continuous rise at the beginning of the year seems to be gone forever.


So here's the problem - What caused the CNY to "fall"?


The Dollar And The Euro Rose Together


With the gradual strengthening of the euro exchange rate - this phenomenon has successfully attracted the attention of the US government and many businesses whose confidence in the euro market have increased, and investment in Europe has accelerated accordingly.​​


Similarly, the euro goes hand in hand with the dollar.


According to several recent released data:


  • The Home Price Index of 20 major cities in America was held at an annual rate of 2.55% in January
  • The Conference Board's consumer confidence index in March was 104.2
  • The dollar rose 4.8% in the international payments market (a payment instrument used during international trade and economic activity)


These data have exceeded the expected value, which is one of the correlation factors of the dollar's "stop falling and turn up" in recent days.


As a result, the USD rose and the CNY fell.



RMB Growth Slows


In addition to paying attention to the international situation, the domestic economic market also needs to take into account.


  • China's economic growth slows

Affected by the epidemic and trade friction, foreign exchange earnings have decreased, and the imbalance between supply and demand has gradually appeared.

  • Accommodative monetary policy

The People's Bank of China (PBC) began to lower interest rates in order to stabilize the domestic economic market. And thus stimulate the economy.

  • Foreign trade slowdown

After the United States imposed sanctions on Russia, Russia reduced the number of imports of American products, and the trade cooperation between China and Russia also decreased.


Then, in comparison, interest rates are falling behind the dollar.​


But every coin has two sides.

The devaluation of the CNY has brought great convenience to exports, enhancing export competitiveness and price advantage, and easing foreign exchange pressure.



 Will the US Dollar Rise in the Second Half of the Year?


Although the dollar index is now "stop falling to rise," but in the long run, the dollar's downward trend does not seem to be over.​​


It is well known that since the beginning of 2021, the Fed has embarked on a continuous cycle of rate hikes, which, though not very large at a time, has led to chaos in global capital markets.


In addition, with inflation rising amid the pandemic, the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates non-stop.


The result is all known: not up but down. There is more news that even the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States a while ago is also the consequence of radical interest rate hikes.


Not only that, the wave of "de-dollarization" in the international market has also begun to surge.​


  • The Chinese government has actively promoted the internationalization of the yuan, and the central bank has signed local currency settlement agreements with a number of countries.
  • On March 29, China and Brazil agreed to stop using the dollar as an intermediate currency.


Against the backdrop of such a bumper harvest, the dollar's outlook is indeed grim; Therefore, even if the dollar has a recovery, but in the second half of the year, the Fed will need to "cut interest rates" in order to stimulate the economy, then the dollar index may return to the state of decline.



In short, whether it is appreciation or depreciation, adhering to a sound monetary policy is the supreme law.


However, judging from the current situation, the downward trend of the CNY will be reversed in the near future. Panda remind people who are planning to travel abroad in the near future to pay close attention to the exchange rate market in advance, seize the best opportunity to exchange foreign currency, and enjoy a cost-effective spring overseas travel.


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