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Will the RMB exchange rate rebound?


Are you confused? It seems that it is still falling against the US dollar?


However, Panda reviewed information from various parties and carefully analyzed it and found that although U.S. interest rates continued to rise, the U.S. dollar exchange rate strengthened again, and non-U.S. currencies generally depreciated.


But - when comparing the appreciation and depreciation of the RMB against different currencies, we will find that the RMB is actually appreciating in general!



For a basket of currencies, such as the pound, the yen, and the renminbi, they all showed an appreciation trend, but the exchange rate against the US dollar actually fell relatively slightly. This shows that the renminbi did not depreciate across the board, but that the exchange rate rebounded.


Now, let Panda Remit analyze it for everyone~


Does the RMB still seem to be depreciating?


If we use the well-known U.S. dollar as the standard of measurement, just looking at the exchange rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar, the RMB is indeed still in a period of depreciation... However, if we look at other countries, the U.S. dollar exchange rate is frequently strengthening, which is very The U.S. currency is falling for everyone. To a large extent, it is actually affected by the general environment...

Source: Sina Finance


The escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have become increasingly severe, leading to rising risk aversion. Just looking at the international gold price that rose above the US$2,000/ounce mark last Monday and the soaring international oil price, we can see that people's demand for safe-haven assets has greatly increased.


At this time, the considerable rise in the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has increased the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar. The combination of various factors has undoubtedly given the U.S. dollar good support. The addition of various buffs has prompted more investors' funds to flow to the United States. , thereby pushing up the dollar exchange rate.


In fact, this is not the case, the RMB strengthens

Panda Remit found that relevant reports showed that in the past quarter, the RMB index did not fall, but rose by 2.9%. This increase shows that despite the fluctuations in the exchange rate against the US dollar, the appreciation of the RMB against the British pound is much greater than that against the British pound. As the US dollar has fallen, the RMB is actually appreciating in the international market.


Although the U.S. economy is more resilient, the RMB is not to be outdone. Against the background of continued demand for restoration of China's economic fundamentals, my country's economic stabilization policy continues to be effective and gradually effective. my country's announced annual profit rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in September has "improved", rising by 2.7 percentage points month-on-month. This It is also conducive to the "strengthening" of the value of the RMB. As the economy looks good, the RMB exchange rate will naturally rebound.


Here is an intuitive example using the British pound:

Source: Sina Finance


Since the high exchange rate during the peak period of tuition payment in August and September, the pound has fallen against the yuan. According to statistics, the pound against the dollar exchange rate has fallen by more than 6% in three months, and now it has been hovering around the 8.88 line. Overall, the RMB has appreciated against the pound, and the same RMB as in the past can be exchanged for more pounds. If you are well prepared, friends who are welcoming the Christmas holiday can take this opportunity to exchange some pounds in advance for emergencies~


In fact, the actual exchange rate performance of the RMB is quite complicated because it has different exchange rate relationships with multiple currencies. We need to consider the changes in the RMB against currencies such as the US dollar, euro, pound, and Japanese yen. These diverse relationships constitute the comprehensive performance of the RMB in the international market.


Therefore, although the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate, overall, the RMB is actually showing an appreciation trend. So if you see the right time, you can exchange currency in time~