AUD/CNY is about to be over 5?
熊猫速汇PandaRemit - 2024-07-12 13:55:50.0 433
In the past few days, I believe that many people and Panda have both been stupefied by the news that the Australian dollar exchange rate has risen to 4.9!
The Australian dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate is what many Chinese and Chinese students are concerned about every day. From July 3, the Australian dollar against the Chinese yuan exchange rate suddenly appeared abnormal: instantly soared to the highest point this year with the opening point of 4.86!
It feels like the same history in June and July last year happened again, which stunned our friends who study overseas in Australia:
As for why the Australian dollar suddenly soared, Panda found the following reasons after careful analysis:
The U.S. economy is waning, pushing the Australian dollar exchange rate higher
This time the AUD rate rise was obviously affected by the news that the United States just announced.
The U.S. Department of Commerce released data in the morning of the same day, the U.S. new orders for manufactured goods in May amounted to 583.1 billion U.S. dollars, a decline of 0.5% on month on month basis, weaker than the market's expected 0.2% rise;
The release of a series of data then staged a textbook market reaction:
The U.S. services sector prosperity index for June was 48.8, well below market expectations of 53 and 53.8 in May.
The same release of employment data also fell short of expectations, the unemployment rate instead higher than predicted.
To summarize, the U.S. economy continues to languish, and can not see the dawn of recovery, the impact of the U.S. dollar exchange rate also continued to weaken.
The US dollar exchange rate has a huge impact on many international currencies, especially the Australian dollar. Whenever the US Dollar exchange rate falls, the Australian Dollar exchange rate will be affected and rise directly.
This time is no exception, the U.S. dollar index was weak because of the bad economy, that’s why although the Australian economy is also in a state of depression, it’s exchange rate still had an instant rise, and even came to the highest point of the year.
Australia's domestic economy is facing double challenges: inflation rebound and high interest rate dilemma
In May, Australia's inflation rate reached 4.0%, far exceeding the expected 3.8% and the previous value of 3.6%.
On July 3, Australian officials released the latest inflation data, and immediately the Australian dollar quickly moved higher.
The data not only shocked the market, but also validated the Australian Federal Reserve's previous forecast of a sharp rebound in inflation.
The result had an immediate impact on the financial markets, with the Australian dollar briefly rising, while the Australian stock market rose across the board, and even the financial sector, which is usually favored by high interest rates, fell.
In the face of continuing rising inflationary pressures, the Australian Federal Reserve will likely have to continue its tight monetary policy.
Dr. Kent, Vice Chairman of the Australian Federal Reserve, admitted that there are still many uncontrollable factors affecting inflation and the neutral interest rate level has been raised to 3.5%.
A number of financial institutions predicted that the probability of another Australian interest rate hike on August 24 is as high as 60-70%, which may raise the official interest rate to 4.60%, the highest level since 2011.
And once the rate is raised in August, the Australian dollar is bound to soar against the Chinese yuan. Based on last week's trend, it's not impossible for AUD/CNY to break 5 this week.
Although the current exchange rate of the Australian dollar against the Chinese yuan has risen, but with AUD rate ups and downs, it is difficult to predict whether the Australian dollar will continue to rise or fall. Panda warmly suggests that if friends in Australia have the need to exchange foreign currency, seize the moment and start in time!
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