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Australia: A Surge! The Australian Dollar Reaches New Heights!


A "curse" has long been rumored in the Australian study abroad community — the Australian dollar tends to rise just as tuition fees are due. Recently, this "curse" seems to have been validated once again...


Unbeknownst to many, the Australian dollar has climbed from its October low of 4.58 to 4.82. Many who were waiting for it to drop to 4.6 before exchanging are now facing 4.8... (crying in the restroom)


Source: Sina Finance


However, PandaRemit has observed that the recent rise in the Australian dollar is not merely due to the "curse effect" but is a result of a combination of multiple factors.


Dovish Stance from the Federal Reserve


Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced its December interest rate decision, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 5.25% to 5.50% for the third consecutive time, meeting market expectations.


Additionally, the Fed issued its clearest signal yet of ending rate hikes and projected three rate cuts in 2024, totaling 75 basis points. The federal funds rate at the end of next year is expected to be 4.6%, significantly lower than the 5.1% forecasted in September.



Following the Fed's dovish signals, the Australian dollar experienced a sharp rise on December 13th!



Moderate Growth in the Australian Economy


Last Thursday, Australia released its November employment data, showing the unemployment rate rising to 3.9%, the highest since May last year.


One might question, isn't a rising unemployment rate a negative indicator? — However, it's important to consider the reasons behind the data. The increase in Australia's unemployment rate is mainly due to the number of job seekers exceeding the number of hires, indicating more people are looking for work. Overall, the momentum of job growth relative to population growth continues!



Philip Lowe, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, emphasized the RBA's focus on supporting Australia's robust labor market and reiterated the RBA's commitment to maintaining job growth!


Additionally, Australian consumer confidence slightly rebounded in December, and inflation trends have slowed, providing some support for the trajectory of the Australian dollar.


Relatively Strong Commodity Prices


Australia's major export commodities include iron ore, coal, natural gas, and gold.

In recent years, factors such as slow global supply chain recovery post-pandemic, adverse weather conditions, impacts of de-globalization, and long-term underinvestment in upstream energy and industrial sectors have increased supply costs.


Overall, the commodity market remains in a state of oversupply. Prices of Australia's key export commodities like coal and natural gas are expected to remain high, positively impacting Australia's exports and the Australian dollar.


Moreover, with market expectations of new stimulus measures from the Chinese government, iron ore prices are nearing a historic high of around 130 Australian dollars per ton. This rare price increase has provided strong support for the Australian dollar.



For those planning to exchange Australian dollars, not only is the weather cold, but so are their hearts! If you're not in a hurry, it might be worth waiting a bit longer. If you urgently need Australian dollars, be sure to use a legitimate currency exchange method to avoid "losing on both fronts"!


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This publication is provided for general information purposes only and is not intended to cover every aspect of the topics with which it deals. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content in this publication. The information in this publication does not constitute legal, tax or other professional advice from WOTRANSFER PTE. LTD. or its affiliates. Prior results do not guarantee a similar outcome. We make no representations, warranties or guarantees, whether express or implied, that the content in the publication is accurate, complete or up to date.


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